DTN Reports New Crop Corn Stocks Raised

By Chris Clayton-DTN Ag Policy Editor
and  Emily Unglesbee-DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) — U.S. corn ending stocks for the crop planted this spring (2016-17) are projected at 2.15 billion bushels and if realized would be the highest since the mid-1980s.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 305 million bushels for new crop beans, which came in below the pre-report average.

Wheat ending stocks for the 2016-17 crop are projected to top 1.029 billion bushels, the highest since the 1987-88 crop year.

The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released Tuesday were the first USDA forecasts looking at ending stocks for the new crop marketing year.

CORN

Production for the new crop is projected at 14.43 billion bushels, which if realized would be 214 million bushels higher than the record 2014-15 crop year.

While the 2016-17 ending stocks are the highest in more than 30 years, USDA stated the stocks-to-use ratio remains far lower than in the mid-1980s.

USDA projects the average corn price for the 2016-17 marketing year will drop to $3.35 per bushel.

For corn planting, USDA stuck to its March 31 prospective planting report at 93.6 million acres.

Globally, new crop exports are projected to be higher with more exports from Argentina, the European Union and Ukraine offsetting a decline from Brazil. U.S. corn exports are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 175 million from old-crop exports.

SOYBEANS

Production is projected at 3.8 billion bushels, which would be down 129 million from the 2015-16 crop because of lower projected harvest area and yield.

The ending stocks at 305 million bushels are on the low end of end of pre-report estimates and down 95 million from the old-crop ending stocks.

USDA projects the average soybean price for the 2016-17 soybean crop will come in at $9.10 a bushel, about 20 cents higher than the average for the old crop prices.

USDA also maintained its prospective planting acreage for soybeans at 82.2 million acres.

Globally, the Brazilian new soybean crop is projected at 103 million metric tons, up 4 million tons because of higher projected acreage and yield. U.S. new crop exports are projected at 1.885 billion bushels, up 145 million bushels from the 2015-16 marketing year.

WHEAT

All U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.998 billion bushels, down 3% from the 2015-16 crop, which is attributed to a drop in planted acreage.

Winter wheat is forecast at 1.43 billion bushels production, up 4% from last year. Winter wheat yield is projected at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 5.3 bushels from last year and matching 1999 for record yield.

Hard Red Winter Wheat is projected at 863 million bushels, which came in higher than the pre-report analyst averages. Winter wheat thus far has benefitted from ideal spring growing conditions, USDA stated. Yield for all classes of winter wheat are projected to be higher.

USDA projects the average wheat price for 2016-17 will be $4.10 per bushel, down about 85 cents from the old-crop average price.

Total global wheat production is pegged at 727 million metric tons, the second-highest total on record.